1997 European Union documentation gives the population for the UK as 58,000,000.

The gross national product per capita is 15,397 and the workforce is broken up thus: 2% agriculture, 28% industry and 70% services.

Population	58,000,000
GDP per head	15,397 Ecu

Post-16 provision in England and Wales has been characterised as having a divided and too specialised system of qualifications and a diffuse and complex system of delivery. It is these weaknesses and the problem of how to deal with them, which as far as we know are not experienced, at least not to the same extent, in other EU countries, that explain the peculiarly strong focus on unification in England and Wales and also the fierceness of the resistance to it.

From the early 1980s the vocational route was the focus of continuous curriculum reforms. They were often short-term and always liable to be overtaken by new initiatives and led to a succession of new qualifications, often with conflicting and even contradictory purposes. By the mid-1990s vocational education in England and Wales consisted of two tracks - broad vocational courses (increasingly (GNVQs) and occupationally-focused NVQs. To summarise what remains a confusing picture, the vocational curriculum is fundamentally split between three traditions: a weak technical tradition; a pre-vocational tradition, in the 1990s reflected increasingly in GNVQs; and a narrow competence-based and occupationally-focused approach to work-based learning (NVQs).

The problems of this mixed and unplanned provision in England and Wales reflect a strong voluntarist tradition in which the State makes no demands on employers to have a role in training or to invest in training even if they recruit 16-17 year olds. Coupled with this is the continuing lack of demand for highly skilled employees from employers. There is also no clear relationship between qualifications and employment opportunities, with the obvious consequences for the motivation of learners. The traditional English unpopularity of vocational qualifications has remained, despite considerable sums of money being spent on marketing and implementation. Government policy over the last five years has involved entrenching limiting access to the academic route and accentuating the difference between it and the vocational alternatives.

Current debates about academic and vocational learning in England and Wales revolve around three models. The first is the existing multi-track system that reflects the traditional deep division between academic and vocational learning, closely linked with social divisions. The others represent two attempts to modify or transform the traditional system: an overarching framework approach continuing a strong voluntarist tradition in educational policy and an unified system approach that calls for long-term restructuring of the secondary education system.

Political and economic background factors since the 1980s include the high unemployment in EU countries in general and the collapse of youth labour market in the UK; pressures from global competition and the concomitant need for a highly skilled national workforce; plans by national governments for reducing public expenditure; the peculiarly English policy of treating education and training provision as a market; and a qualification-led educational reform strategy.

Ant et al (1996) complement this for continuing vocational education as follows:

The UK primary and secondary education system is based on the National Curriculum and provides a broad and balanced education for all pupils aged 5-16 including vocational elements pre-16.

The UK government provides pupils with the National Record of Achievement (NRA) to record all their achievements. Participation at tertiary level (schools and colleges) is voluntary.

Initial vocational training aims to provide young people with training leading to National Vocational Qualifications (NVQs) and with the broad-based skills necessary to become flexible and self reliant employees.

Continuing vocational training follows this initial vocational training phase and is designed to respond to the needs of the individuals and employers in adapting to changing responsibilities, employment patterns, work roles, technological change and innovation.

Underpinning both initial vocational training and continuing vocational training is a common framework of National Vocational Qualifications which are based on occupational standards.

This rule applies in the United Kingdom to each of the four categories into which the Voctade study is divided:

• Public distance training institutions.
• Proprietary distance training institutions.
• Distance teaching university.
• Distance education from conventional university.

Government distance training provision

Proprietary distance training provision

Distance teaching university

University level distance education

In what follows the data is presented in three parts:

Survey of the provision of distance learning in the public further education sector in 1997

Surveys of selected institutions

Survey of the provision of distance learning in the proprietary further education sector in 1997.

Public further education sector

Further education provision

Table 1 shows enrolment statistics on open and distance learning within the Further Education sector in the UK, broken down by country. Figures were supplied by the Further Education Funding Council for England, the Further Education Funding Council for Wales, the Scottish Education Department and the Department of Education for Northern Ireland (DENI).

Complete figures for 1996-1997 were not available for England. Preliminary figures issued in a press release by the Further Education Funding Council indicates that enrolments in November 1996 were almost equal to those in November 1995, although there had been a slight shift from non-funded to funded provision. There may also have been a further shift to open learning, although no firm information is available on this point.

The figures given in Table 1 are probably a slight under-estimate of the true position:

it is understood that they would not include students studying overseas who are registered with a further education college in the UK

they would not include sale of distance learning materials where there is no tutorial support

figures for Wales are based on data collection in November of the relevant academic year and will exclude students who enrolled later in the year.

Fees and Market Volume

Figures supplied by the Further Education Funding Council for England gave the total fees paid or expected for the students enrolled on open and distance learning within the sector in England and from this it was possible to calculate an average fee per student in England. This was then multiplied by enrolments for the UK as a whole to give an estimate of the total fees paid by open and distance leaning students in the UK as a whole (Table 2).

Table 2 excludes the funding paid by the various funding agencies for student enrolments on courses which meet the funding criteria as described above.

Trends and Status

There has been an overall rise in the take up of open and distance learning within further education in the UK. Student numbers on open and distance learning in England rose by 30% between 1994/5 and 1995/6 and in Scotland by 43%. In Wales student numbers rose by 72% between 1995/6 and 1996/7. In Northern Ireland, by contrast, enrolments figures remain static.

Total enrolments to all types of provision in further education in the UK have risen steadily over recent years. Open and distance learning typically represents around 3% of total enrolments in England and Wales and 7-8% in Scotland, but only 0.6% in Northern Ireland. In Wales open and distance learning as a percentage of total enrolments increased between 1995/6 and 1996/7 (from 2.6% to 4.0%).

The further education sector in the United Kingdom includes general further education colleges, specialist colleges (for example for agriculture and art and design), general tertiary colleges, and sixth form colleges. The Funding Councils also provide funding for 'external institutions' in respect of courses which meet the funding criteria. It is not known how many of the six hundred institutions which make up the sector in England offer open and distance learning; the present project has been able to add to the list supplied by Voctade sources and to identify at least 140 colleges involved in this type of provision, but the true figure is probably much higher. Figures from the Further Education Funding Council for Wales indicate that of the 28 Welsh Further Education institutions (excluding 'sponsored institutions'), 20 had enrolments on open and distance learning during 1996/97.

Figures from the Funding Councils for students studying by open and distance also include students registered on flexible and drop-in provision. Overall this category includes:

• distance learning, where students work on learning material prepared or provided by the college, with tutorial support by post, telephone or e-mail and little or no attendance at the college
• open learning, where the students similarly work on learning material but may attend tutorials at the college, either for group or individual sessions, and may also use college workshops and libraries
• drop-in provision, where much of the study is undertaken in a study centre, IT workshop or practical workshop, but with the student attending at times to suit him/herself and working mainly on self study material.
• 'flexible learning' which may include any or all of these.

Enrolments in flexible learning in FE in Scotland, broken down by type:

1995-6
Distance learning (may include summer schools etc).	5100	5822
Locally based learning (typically home study with some tutorial visits to college).	6448	7434
College-based private study (eg using language laboratories or IT equipment,with some tutorial assistance).	1202	2618
Other open learning or directed private study.	4700	9048

The scale of tutorial support may vary according to the nature of the course and the requirements of the individual student. A number of colleges offer students the option of buying learning material without tutorial support and may offer a variable pricing structure, allowing students to select their preferred level of support. Other colleges charge a 'price for the course' which includes essential material and open-ended tutorial support. Enrolment on a course by open or distance learning frequently allows the student to use other college facilities such as libraries and social facilities.

Courses may require other text books as well as the basic course material and many colleges are able to supply these. Colleges are increasingly beginning to offer a 'buy back' service for learning material and books, reducing the overall price of the course to the students and contributing to recycling.

Colleges vary in what they see as their catchment area. Some see themselves as serving mainly the local community and therefore concentrate on drop-in provision or on open learning with face-to-face tutorials. Others have a wider catchment and offer courses nationally or internationally by distance learning. Those which have developed their own materials, especially in specialist areas of the curriculum, may franchise them to other colleges and establish national networks of tutorial support.

The range of subjects which can be studied by open and distance learning is extremely wide. Unsurprisingly, the most popular are those which require little or no access to specialist equipment or workshops. Many colleges offer traditional academic subjects, leading to the GCSE and GCE A Level examinations. Management and supervisory management subjects are also extremely popular by open and distance learning. The full range, however, includes food hygiene, occupational health and safety, engineering, travel subjects, textiles and clothing, and printing subjects with some less usual topics such as pig production, IEE wiring regulations for electrical installation, vehicle alarm systems and wood science.

Drop-in provision is especially popular for computing and information technology subjects and many colleges have resource centres where students can use computers and learn to use specific software packages or gain an overall understanding of information technology. Drop-in workshops are also used for communication and language support, including English as a Foreign Language, and for mathematics and number skills.

The UK government and the Education and Employment Departments have consistently encouraged the extension of open and flexible learning during the 1980s and 1990s. This forms part of an overall trend towards making educational provision more accessible and increasing the take up, especially amongst adults and non-traditional learners. It also forms part of a trend to put the emphasis on outcomes (ie the skills and knowledge obtained) rather than processes (ie attendance at a course of a fixed length and at an approved institution). Consequently there has been a greatly increased emphasis on the attainment of qualifications and certificates and open and distance learning have shared in this trend. Much open and distance learning is now designed to lead to a recognised qualification (eg GCSE, GCE A Level, National Certificate or a professional qualification) or to lead to a unit of a larger qualification. Even very short courses and drop-in provision are often designed to lead to the achievement of a certificate.

Students taking courses by open and distance learning can achieve many of the same certificates as are available through more traditional courses. There is therefore no disadvantage on the job market for a student who has obtained a certificate by this route.

Some qualifications cannot be achieved solely through distance learning, usually because they require substantial practical work or evidence of on-the-job competence demonstrated through assessment in the workplace (for example, as is the case with National Vocational Qualifications). Even for qualifications of this type, some of the associate knowledge may be acquired through open and distance learning.

A review of the range of courses offered by open and flexible learning within the further education sector strongly suggests that an important factor in open learning provision is the availability of good quality materials. Examples of such materials include the Super series on supervisory management (published by Pergamon Open Learning and designed to lead to the NEBSM certificate in Supervisory Management) and the National Extension Colleges Flexistudy series for GCE and GCSE.

Examples of College Provision

This section gives some examples of colleges offering open and distance learning provision. These are merely a small selection of the total range of open, distance and flexible learning offered by further education institutions in the UK.

Bournemouth and Poole College offers a range of subjects at GCSE and GCE A Level by Flexistudy using materials designed by organisations such as the National Extension College and Oxford Open Learning. Students register for one or more subjects and the fee includes course materials, private tuition with a tutor for up to three hours per term at times and durations agreed between the student and the tutor, telephone help from the college, if needed, marking and comment on written assignments and course work, access to the college library and other learning resources. Fees are charged on a per term or per year basis, so that a student who takes longer than expected will pay more.

Broxstowe College in Nottinghamshire offers flexible learning facilities in electronics and micro electronics, English and communications, mathematics and numeracy and information technology. Students attend the learning centre at times to suit themselves and have access to a range of learning materials and IT equipment, as well as to advice from specialist tutors. Broxstowe College offers distance learning in supervisory management and in a range of subjects at GCSE and GCE A Level. Students studying by distance learning use learning packages and receive tutorial support by correspondence, telephone or in face-to-face sessions.

Brighton College of Technology has a flexible learning centre computer workshop, which is open weekdays and some evenings, where students can work through self study packages, using the available IT equipment. The computer applications available include word-processing, databases, spreadsheets and desktop publishing, as well as introductory courses. The range includes courses leading to a specific external certificate, for which there is a fixed fee. Other provision gives students the opportunity to use workshop facilities for a fee per hour. The college also offers distance learning courses leading to A Level and GCSE examinations and to National Vocational Qualifications. Students can study either at home or in the flexible learning centre and tutorial guidance is available by letter, telephone, fax or e-mail or face-to-face.

Carmarthenshire College of Technology and Art (CCTA) in Wales offers a wide range of distance learning courses through its Open Learning Centre International. There is an extensive course catalogue which includes GCSE and A Level subjects, management subjects, languages, care, counselling, electronics, hotels and catering, IT subjects, secretarial and office subjects, retailing, travel and transport and writing skills, indeed everything from accountancy to Zulu. Many courses lead to a recognised qualification, but the range also includes uncertificated learning. The majority of the tutorial support is at a distance and the centre has students in 70 different countries, but face-to-face tutorial support is also available in West Wales.

Jewel and Esk Valley College, south of Edinburgh distinguishes in its literature between open learning which it describes as 'essentially by home based study' and flexible learning which includes access to college for practical work. Both modes of learning include a marking and tutorial service. The college offers a wide range of both forms of learning. Flexible learning is available for computing and IT subjects, some provision in mathematics and numeracy, first aid and hair and beauty subjects. Students studying by open learning can choose from a range which includes languages, business administration, care, retailing, engineering and construction. Some of the provision is related to the modular National Certificate and Higher National Certificate qualifications of the Scottish Qualifications Authority (formally SCOTVEC); each course is designed to the meet the requirements of a single module but candidates can build up to a full qualification. Some other courses lead to a college certificate but most are designed to meet the requirements of externally validated qualifications.

Plymouth College of Further Education in Devon has (since the 1980s) been devising its own learning materials leading to the BTEC National Certificate in Engineering, with a particular emphasis on electrical and computer engineering. Courses based on these materials are offered by distance learning with tutorial support either from Plymouth College itself or from a network of other support centres across the UK. Students may study for a single module, for which they receive a BTEC Unit Certificate, or may build up a full qualification. While most tutorial support is at a distance, students can use college facilities for practical assessments. The materials are also available without tuition. Where necessary, the distance learning package includes practical kits (eg electronic components). Some materials are also suitable for use in a workshop or classroom situation. In addition to the material leading to the National Certificate, Plymouth college also offers materials for a small range of IT qualifications.

Salisbury College offers open learning mainly for GCSE and GCE A Level subjects, but also in electronics, computing, IT and CAD (computer aided design) and in travel and tourism. The learning is supported by face-to-face tutorial sessions, either for groups or for individuals, and includes access to the college resources, including the open learning centre.

South Tyneside College, in the North of England, offers a range of open learning and drop-in provision. Courses requiring the use of computers, including general computer literacy, computerised accounting and computer aided design, are studied using the computing facilities of the learning centre. Other courses can be studied either in the learning centre or outside the college. The range of courses available by open learning includes the BTEC Higher National Certificate in Engineering (now awarded by the EDEXCEL Foundation) and the BTEC National Certificate and Higher National Certificate in Naval Architecture. The college has particular expertise in shipbuilding and naval architecture. Although many students studying via open learning use the learning resource centre, the college also has distance learning students in other parts of the country and overseas.

West Herts College in Watford has produced a wide range of learning materials with a particular emphasis in printing and publishing subjects. These can lead to a BTEC First Certificate or National Certificate. Other subjects for which the college has produced learning material include art and design, graphic design, creative writing and key skills. The materials can be purchased without tutorial support or can form part of a distance or open learning course with tutorial support by correspondence, telephone or by access to the college learning centre.

Other further education provision

The National Extension College is a limited company charity founded in Cambridge in 1963 which receives no public funding and values its independence. Today it straddles the divide between public and private provision and the divide between further education and higher education. It enrols 9.000 to 10.000 new students each year and would have a current student body of at least 19.000. Many see it as the first in line of a series of foundations including The Open University (1969), the Open Tech (1983), the Open College of the Air (1987), the Open Polytechnic (1992). Changes of government policy in 1997 from welfare to work have contributed to high enrolments in 1997.

The NEC straddles the higher education / further education divide as it offers post-university and pre-university courses. It also straddles the public/proprietary divide as it was a model for many of the public distance education intiatives listed, but is a private foundation which receives no public funding.

The Open Tech was founded by the UK government in 1983 and disbanded in 1987. Some of the analysis that has been published has been critical (Fay 1983) and when the project funding was withdrawn in March 1987 little remained. But it paved the way to the future.

The Open College was founded in 1987 by the UK government as a further education distance training provider to complement the Open University. Its original title was the Open College of the Air and had headquarters in London and a series of centres throughout the UK but this model proved ineffective and the television component was abandoned. Today the Open College is an open learning provider at East Didsbury, a suburb of Manchester. The model is in-company training with freelance industry-trained tutors who present the Open College materials to the company personnel and hold some in-company tutorial days during the year.

Manchester Open Learning is the distance training arm of the Manchester College of Arts and Technology (MANCAT) and is one of the largest open learning providers. Manchester Open Learning programmes vary in the amount and form of attendance they require, but there are three broad categories into which most courses can be placed: centre-based, local, distant. There are two flexible study routes: open learning and distance learning. Manchester Open Learning has an extensive course development and graphics department and customises its courses for each corporate client.

The proprietary distance training sector

Institutions that are members of the Open and Distance Learning Quality Council (ODLQC).

Institutions that are not members of the Open and Distance Learning Quality Council (ODLQC).

The International Management Centre (IMC) in Buckingham is given as an example of Internet-based providers.

ODLQC. On 6^th April 1995, the U.K. Council for the Accreditation of Correspondence Colleges (CACC) decided to change its name to the Open and Distance Learning Quality Council. This was to reflect more accurately the activities of the Council and its 44 member colleges. Individual colleges in this grouping do not communicate normally their volume of enrolment as this is considered an important marketing function and the researcher has to estimate the volume of enrolments and the fees paid.

The 1997 listing of 44 members contains most of the leading proprietary further education providers of distance training in the U.K. The ODLQC concludes that its largest member has nearly 40,000 students, that two others are in the 10,000 - 20,000 category and that total 1997 enrolment is unlikely to be less than 90,000.

The IMC in Buckingham decided from 1995 to put all its courses unfirewalled on the Internet. It offers a range of MBAs and other advanced business and management degrees totally globally on the Internet. Any reader who wishes can access or download their courses at http://www.imc.org.uk/imc/home.htm and use the materials for their own purposes. They claim that 'email has predominantly replaced the use of the telephone. Attached/post files have replaced the mail and fax. The cost savings to IMC have been considerable' (Oliver & Wills 1996: 5).

There are a wide range of distance providers in the U.K., that are not of the ODLQC:

• Professional bodies.
• IPM.
• ACA.
• Association of Bankers.
• Trade Unions.
• UNISON.
• Psychotherapy.
• Society of Sports Therapists.
• Academy of Sports.
• Morris College of Journalism.
• Open College of the Arts. (4,000).
• The Art School.
• Copywriting Colleges.
• Editing Colleges.
• Alternative Health.
• A range of Sports or Fitness of Health Course provided.
• Oxford Open Learning (Systems) Ltd.

The Association of British Correspondence Colleges (ABCC) in London SW 19 is the trade grouping of the proprietary distance training providers in the UK. Founded in 1955 it safeguards the best interest of correspondence students by providing sound education standards and ethical business practices.

The United Kingdom model is to have both an open university and a wide provision of open and distance learning courses from conventional universities competing for the United Kingdom higher education distance education market.. Another major provider is the University of London External Degree Programme. In 1997 there are plans for a new University of Industry. The universities and institutions of higher education listed in the International Centre for Distance Learning on 1.1.1997 are the basis of this analysis

The Open University

The Open University was created by Royal Charter in 1969 and enrolled its first students in 1971. The executive head is the Vice-Chancellor, assisted by Pro-Vice-Chancellors. The Open University employs about 3.700 full-time staff in academic, clerical or administrative positions at Milton Keynes and at thirteen regional offices throughout Britain. In addition there are British Broadcasting Corporation staff and 7.600 part-time tutors and counsellors. Many of the part-time staff are employed full-time by another tertiary institution. There is an office in most EU capital cities with 306 study centres in the UK and 46 overseas.

In this highly competitive market the Vice-Chancellor of the Open University, Sir J. Daniel,: (http://www.open.uc.wbc/CV/News/VC/Wcfinal.html) positions his university in 1997 thus:

In the countries that have created them, the mega-universities have greatly expanded access to higher education. Let me take two examples, the U.K. and China. There are 150,000 students in the U.K. Open University this year. Yet, in 1963, the year that the creation of the Open University was first proposed, there were only 130,000 students in all British universities put together. In China, where more than half a million people now study at degree level in the Television University System, the 1.5m. people who have graduated from its programmes in the last decade represent 17% of the national output of 3-year degrees.

Second, some figures illustrate the cost advantage of the mega-universities. The 3,500 colleges and universities in the U.S.A. have an enrolment of 14 million students and annual spending on higher education there is around $175 billion. That represents an average cost of Euro 11,400 per student. The U.K. has 182 higher education institutions, 1.6 million students, and a spend of nearly 10,000 billion pounds. It works out at around ----- per student, or about $10,000. Not quite as expensive as the United States but in the same ballpark. Now group together the eleven mega-universities. They enrol between them some 2.8 million students. Their budgets aggregate to a bit less than $1 billion. That works out at less than Euro 320 per student.

Third, to those considerable advantages in access and cost, the mega-universities also add the advantage of flexibility. Distance education is an inherently flexible form of teaching and learning which puts fewer constraints of time and place upon students than classroom attendance. The evidence now shows that the quality of teaching and learning at a distance can be at least as high as on campus. Let me use the example of the U.K. Open University again.

In Britain's national system for the assessment of teaching quality in universities, the Open University has received an 'excellent' rating for most of its programmes. At the moment it ranks number 10 out of 77 English Universities for the quality of its teaching - just behind University College, London, which is in ninth place. Combined with its scale of operation, that is a major contribution. For example, if you take all the Geology programmes in English universities that are rated 'excellent' you find that the Open University now accounts for 62% of all the students studying in excellent-rated programmes. In Music 65% - nearly two-thirds of the students in excellent programmes - are at the Open University. Yet, Geology and Music are not subjects where you would expect distance education to have a natural advantage.

I also stress that distance education in general, and the mega-universities in particular offer curricular flexibility. If a programme is needed in a new area the mega-universities make it possible to offer it to large numbers of people, all over the country, relatively quickly and to a high level of quality. A few years ago, for example, the U.K. Government wanted a programme that would make it possible for people in mid-career, particularly those with a science or technology background, to become teachers.

Of its 165,000 students in 1997, over 25,000 are from overseas. In recent years the OUUK has opened offices in most of the EU countries in the Voctade study, and made extensive developments in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Implications of new government fee regulations proposed for late 1997 may now make it more expensive for the OUUK to enrol students from overseas than from its home and the position of students from other countries in the Union needed clarification.

Conventional universities

This HESA statistic is taken as the basis for the calculation of the market volume of higher education institutions in the U.K., which offer courses at a distance.

These higher education institutions can be grouped thus:

• The External Degree Programme of the University of London.
• Providers of MBAs and other business degrees at a distance. (e.g. Heriot-Watt University).
• Universities and institutions of higher education listed on the ICDL data base on 1.1.1997 as distance learning providers (e.g. University of Warwick).
• The Open Learning Foundation - a grouping of former polytechnic universities which teach at a distance (e.g. University of North London).

The Open University is clearly the major supplier of distance learning courses in the U.K., although quite a number of 'traditional campus-based' universities are now offering courses mainly post-graduate courses at master's degree through distance learning. There also appears to be a trend to offer post-graduate certificate courses for teachers at a distance. With the exception of the Open University, those universities who are offering courses via distance learning amount to a few hundred per year.

However, it has been very difficult to get a clear idea as to how many students registered in the U.K. universities are on a course, which is available through distance learning. The U.K. Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) does have a category for universities to record distance learning students - but only those that are U.K.-based. HESA do not appear to have figures for those students who are registered at a U.K. university but based in other parts of the world. Although it has been found that now quite a number of universities do understand the term 'distance learning', very few actually have clearly defined figures under this category which are held centrally. Quite often individual departments or faculties only have this information which has made it very difficult to get a clear picture as to the size of the U.K. higher education distance learning market.

The study primarily contacted universities that were on a list supplied by the U.K. International Centre for Distance Learning (ICDL) who were known to be offering distance learning courses as of the beginning of January 1997. All institutions on the list were contacted but not all actually offered distance learning courses. Enquiries have also revealed that some other universities not on the list are in fact offering courses through distance learning but they have not been included in this survey. Of the 71 institutions on the list supplied by ICDL two institutions (Open Learning Foundation and The University Examination Postal Institution) were not counted as they do not actually validate courses. The Open University has also been treated separately and has been excluded from the estimates below.

Of the 68 institutions, it was possible to get a 58% return on intake for the years 95/96 and 96/97. However, it must be noted that intake figures from some of the institutions may not be very accurate and are best guess estimates. This is because the institution may not have accurate centrally held figures and they may not hold the figures in the format required. Due to the nature of a distance learning course, students could still be registered but take several years to complete.

However, of those that provided information, the average student intake per institution for 95/96 was 243 and for 96/97 was 236.

It was only possible to get 23% return of institutions to provide estimated average fees for a distance learning student and a number of these figures are very rough estimates. None of the institutions held this information centrally and the more courses an institution had on offer, the more difficult it became to get an estimate. It was further complicated by many courses consisting of a number of modules at different fees and whether a student followed that course up to a master's level or just a certificate or diploma level.

However, based on the 15 institutions that were able to supply average fees, their total average came to £4,262. This appears to be a reasonable figure to use to estimate the market volume of the industry for a particular year, therefore:-

95/96 intake year
243 students x 68 institutions = 16,524 students
16,524 students x £4,262 student fee = £70,425,288

96/97 intake year
236 students x 68 institutions = 16,048 students
16,048 students x £4,262 fee = £68,396,576

The Open University estimates that they get £80,000,000 per year from students' fees.

Therefore, it would appear that the U.K. higher education market for distance learning courses amounts to about £150,425,288 for 95/96 and £148,396,576 for 96/97.

However, these figures should be treated with caution. Clearly, there is a need for a more accurate method of collecting this type of information.

The report concludes with a listing of the 1997 distance enrolment of the universities listed on the ICDL data base. The Voctade enquiry chooses not to publish these individual university statistics.

The study commissioned by the Voctade enquiry coincides reasonably well with the statistics provided by HESA.

It is, however, part of the derivation of the field of distance learning adopted in this report that students overseas enrolled in E.U. institutions be calculated as part of the statistics of the institution.

The Open University official statistics indicate 26,000 in this category for 1997. The HESA report states that it does not include these students. It is necessary, therefore, to attempt to estimate them.

The University of London external programme quotes 25,000 students for its provision. Much of this enrolment is considered to be overseas.

The Open Learning Foundation is a consortium of new universities, most of them former polytechnics, which offer open or distance learning courses in Britain and overseas. The most recent statistic is that it sold 25,000 packages of materials in 1995. One of the problems of getting precise statistics is that, as the OLF acts as a publisher to a consortium of new universities who determine how they will use the materials, it is difficult for the OLF to ascertain how they are being used.

The MBA at a distance providers like the University of Strathclyde MBA and Heriot-Watt MBA would have a majority of their students overseas. Heriot-Watt has a large enrolment in the U.S.A., and 1,000 in Israel.

Many of the major universities teaching at a distance on the ICDL listing educate widely in Ireland, with regular advertisements for the University of Warwick, the University of Leicester and other distance universities.

A good barometer of the leading providers can be gleaned from studying Hobson's 1997 Distance Learning and Supported Open Learning Worldwide. This is produced by the ICDL at the Open University, sponsored by the University of London External Programme, has course advertisements for U.K. distance learning providers, gives catalogue entries for U.K. distance learning and supported open learning providers in all the four categories of the Voctade study.

The market volume of the conventional university sector is estimated at 100,000,000 Ecu by the study commissioned by Voctade.

The market volume of the FE sector is put at Ecu 10,500,000 by the study commissioned by Voctade plus the funding paid by the various funding agencies for student enrolments in courses which meet their funding criteria plus any FE Funding Council grants to the FE colleges which one thinks should be amortised to the distance training programme.

The market volume of the proprietary sector is the average fee per course x by the number of students paying the fee. If the average fee was 300 Ecu/Euro and the number of citizens paying this fee 100,000, the annual market volume is 30,000,000 Ecu.

It seems unlikely that the U.K. distance training industry annual volume, as defined, is less than half a billion Ecu per year.

Trends in 1997 which may affect the market volume in the years 1998, 1999, and 2000 include:

• Citizens are gradually getting more used to paying for their own training.
• Building Society windfalls have given citizens more funding for training courses.
• Government change from welfare to work.
• Government support for parents to go out to work.
• No funding for life-long learning or distance learning and withdrawal of proposed White Paper on life-long learning.
• No subsidy for overseas and perhaps E.U. citizens.
• Proposed interactive corporate training on a British Telecom course (BT Campus Professional).
• Edges between forms of provision quite blurred and open learning growing quite evidently.
• Proposed distance University for Industry. This, after the closure of the Open Tech, the flawed model of the Open College, the untimely institution of the Open Polytechnic, is being approached with caution as a 1997 analyst shows:

'It is time to take the lead and gain the competitive edge by providing our workforce with the best opportunities for training and education in the world. We must now make a leap in both the uses of technology and the availability of lifelong and recurrent education.'

The University for Industry will be an agency established to co-ordinate training and work-related education, which are seen as central elements in the U.K.'s economic future within a globally competitive economy. The information technologies and new media are identified as the necessary catalyst to increase both volume and access, while the strategic capacity for co-ordinating national development will provide the added value which the new organisation must demonstrate. The central objective will be 'to boost the capabilities of the workforce'. The identification of the importance of work-related education and training for the economy is not, of course, politically contentious. What is currently missing, according to the Report, and which, therefore, drives the new initiative is 'national vision, leadership and co-ordination'. A comparable exercise was attempted by the Conservative Government in the 1980s with the Open College, which was also designed to revolutionise work-related education and training (in parenthesis, an account in the public domain of that failure is long overdue and now urgently needed). The University for Industry, if established, will be the Labour Party's answer in terms of competence, not analysis.

• many field trips were undertaken from Dublin to known centres of importance: Manchester (MANCAT, Open College etc); Milton Keynes and Buckingham (ICDL, Open University, IMC); Cambridge (National Extension College, International Extension College, Open University); London (Open Learning Foundation, ODLQC).
• contracts were set with two leading UK educational research institutes for distance training at further education level in the UK and for distance training at higher education level in the UK
• Leading experts gave with great generosity of their time and expertise to ensure that the UK Statistics were reported with the same balance and accuracy as for the other 15 centres, amongst those were:

Dr. Keith Harry, then Director of the ICDL at the Open University
Mr David Hardie, Executive Director of the Open Learning Foundation
Dr. David Morley Executive Director of the ODLQC
Dr. Ros Morpeth, Executive Director of the NEC
Mrs Hope Maurice, Director of Manchester Open Learning
Mr. John Trasler, Director of the Open College
and there were many more.
• To this must be added innumerable long distance telephone calls, faxes, e-mails and questionnaires.

For the Open University it was decided not to include the sale of packs to clients as not falling fully within the definition of two-way connection adopted in Volume 2 of this report.

Total: 164,026

Conventional universities

For the conventional universities it was decided to add to the HESA figure of 25,143 these statistics:

University of London External Degree, outside the United Kingdom: 20,000

MBAs at a distance, outside the United Kingdom: 15,000

Open Learning Foundation, outside the United Kingdom: 12,000

ICDL listing of universities, outside the United Kingdom: 12,000

Total: 84,143

Government distance training

For the public further education provision from Further Education Colleges, it was decided that 85% of the enrolment figure provided for open and distance learning by the FEFC fell within the definition of distance training adopted in Volume 2 of the Voctade study, and 15% did not.

Total 123,310

Proprietary distance training provision

ODLQC members 99,000

Private sector institutions that are not members of ODLQC it was decided to estimate 30,000

Total 129,00

1993-1994

1994-1995

1995-1996

1996-1997