Prof. Dr. Peter Imkeller: „Climate Time Series: Statistical Modeling and Dynamics“

Kolloquium der Fakultät für Mathematik und Informatik

Termin: 09.01.2012

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(joint work with A. Debussche, C. Hein, M. Högele, I. Pavlyukevich, T. Wetzel)

Abstract: Simple models of the earth’s energy balance are instrumental for interpreting some qualitative aspects of the dynamics of paleo-climatic data. In the 1980s this led to the investigation of periodically forced dynamical systems of the reaction-diffusion type with small Gaussian noise, and a rough explanation of glacial cycles by Gaussian metastability. A spectral analysis of Greenland ice time series performed at the end of the 1990s representing average temperatures during the last ice age suggest an α -stable noise component with an α ∼ 1 : 75. Based on this observation, papers in the physics literature attempted an interpretation featuring dynamical systems perturbed by small Lévy noise.

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