Online seminar summerterm 2019
Barriers to globalization: the economic consequences of Brexit
23rd of May 2019 - 25th of May 2019
As largely discussed in the public and academic debate, the decision of the UK to leave the EU is likely to have severe long-term consequences on the UK economy. The literature reviewed in this seminar tries to forecast the likely effects of Brexit on trade, FDI, immigration and growth. As we will see, predicting the exact outcomes is difficult, given the high uncertainty surrounding the actual terms of final exit-agreement. To better understand and interpret the results of the research on Brexit, we will use the model of trade and economic integration agreements.
1) The consequences of Brexit for bilateral trade patterns
This thematic block deals with the consequences of Brexit on trade flows and patterns. Part of the papers listed here treat the different options for the trade deals and their consequences. Other papers simulate different world trade scenarios after Brexit and predict their likely welfare consequences.
2) FDI and Brexit
The research contained in this thematic block explores the positive consequences of economic integration on FDI. Leaving an economic integration agreement, as with the Brexit, is likely to negatively affect FDI inflows to the UK, as other papers listed below have shown, by means of standard theoretical and empirical models of FDI.
3) Brexit and Immigration
The literature contained in this thematic block examines the impact of migration on the UK economy as well as the economic impact of a reduction in migration due to Brexit. The topics that this literature covers are the fiscal impact of migration to the UK, the macroeconomic consequences of migration reductions, and their distributional effects through wage changes by skill-level.
4) Impact of Brexit on growth, living standards and the UK regional economy
This thematic block focuses on other possible economic consequences of Brexit so far explored in the literature. Besides the consequences on the overall macroeconomics and growth, the papers listed below specifically address the consequences on inflation, financial markets and the regional economy.
General rules, dates and deadlines
The formal language of the seminar is English: students are expected to present and give feedback in English and to write their Seminar paper in English as well.
There will be an introductory lecture in the first week of March, 2019. The introductory lecture will provide students an overview of the topics and additional remarks on the requirements for the successful participation in the seminar. This first meeting is also meant as an opportunity for students to discuss with the instructors possible questions or doubts about the seminar topics. Participation in the introductory lecture, though not mandatory, is strongly recommended.
All students are required to participate in the seminar by presenting their topic. A first draft of the seminar paper must be handed in before the seminar. After the presentations students have the possibility to further modify their papers so as to include comments and the feedback received during the discussion. A final version of the seminar paper must be handed in by the end of July, 2019.
To provide students with the highest possible degree of flexibility without losing on interactivity, this seminar will be organized as a “online-seminar”. That means that all meetings will take place using the Connect Portal of the FernUniversität in Hagen, which can be accessed using a web interface. No special software is required but a stable internet connection, a webcam and a microphone must be available. Furthermore, the students’ presentations will be scheduled in four to five online meetings which will take place in the late afternoon. This seminar should thus be particularly suitable to students who, for work-related reasons or temporary residence abroad, would otherwise not be able to participate in a regular seminar.
Students should indicate their preferences over two out of the four thematic blocks listed. The selection of participants will follow the general rules of the Faculty of Economics of the FernUniversität in Hagen.